CMS Criteria Do Not Accurately Identify Patients at Risk for Opioid Use Disorder, Overdose

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Wei Y, et al. JAMA. 2019;doi:10.1001/jama.2018.20404.

February 15, 2019

 

The CMS opioid overutilization criteria may not accurately identify patients at risk for opioid use disorder or overdose, according to a research letter published in JAMA.

“Based on the CMS opioid overutilization criteria, the majority of the Medicare Part D patients diagnosed with opioid use disorder or overdose were not identified as ‘opioid overutilizers,’ and more than half of ‘opioid overutilizers’ did not develop opioid use disorder or overdose during the study period,” Yu-Jung Jenny Wei, PhD, Msc, assistant professor of pharmaceutical outcomes and policy at the College of Pharmacy, University of Florida, told Healio Primary Care Today. “The CMS criteria seem not to be a good clinical marker for identifying patients at risk for opioid-related adverse events.”

To estimate the predictive value of the CMS opioid overutilization criteria in correctly identifying prescription opioid users at risk for opioid use disorder or overdose, researchers used the 5% Medicare sample from 2011 through 2014 from which they identified between 142,036 and 190,320 beneficiaries who had at least one opioid prescription filled every 6 months, were continuously enrolled in Parts A, B and D and who met the CMS criteria as opioid overutilizers. Opioid utilization was defined as receiving prescription opioids with a mean daily morphine equivalent dose 90 mg from more than three prescribers and pharmacists or receiving a mean daily morphine equivalent dose of 90 mg by more than four prescribers.

Breaking the study period into three 6-month cycles, researchers examined the performance measures over time to assess if accuracy changed with increasing efforts to combat the opioid crisis. 

During any 6-month cycle, the proportion of beneficiaries who met CMS overutilization criteria ranged from 0.37% to 0.58%.

Throughout the entire 18-month follow-up, researchers found that the proportion of patients who had a diagnosis of opioid use disorder or overdose increased from 3.91% in the first cycle to 7.55% in the last.

In addition, researchers observed low sensitivity of the criteria which ranged from 4.96% (95% CI, 4.42-5.58) at the beginning of the study period to 2.52% (95% CI, 2.26-2.81) at the end (P < .001).

 The CMS opioid overutilization criteria may not accurately identify patients at risk for opioid use disorder or overdose.Source: Adobe Stock

Positive predictive values ranged from 35.2% (95% CI, 32.14-38.38) to 50.95% (95% CI, 47-54.86) and specificity was greater than 99% in all cycles. 

“CMS has required their Medicare Part D plans to implement the criteria,” Wei said. “It’s unclear the effectiveness of such criteria in stopping our national opioid epidemic and whether there are unintended consequences of such implementation. As we are developing solutions to the opioid crisis, it’s important for policymakers, health care providers, hospitals and health insurance companies to be aware that solely relying on opioid prescription data is likely to be ineffective in identifying the high-risk populations for interventions.” – by Melissa J. Webb

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